On September 25th, the world's first stainless steel futures will be listed and traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Recently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange organized training in stainless steel futures business, laying a good market foundation for the stable operation of the variety.
According to the relevant person in the previous period, the launch of the world's first stainless steel futures will further enhance China's pricing influence in the international stainless steel market.
Stainless steel is the most important steel product in China's special steel industry. Due to its good performance, it is widely used in the fields of architectural decoration, transportation, aerospace, petrochemical, energy generation, food processing, environmental protection and medical treatment. In 2018, China's stainless steel output reached 26.71 million tons, making it the world's largest stainless steel producer and consumer, and has an important position in the world stainless steel market.
The stainless steel futures that will be listed in the previous issue are 300 series austenitic stainless steel. The delivery grade is required to be GBCr19Ni10 or Japanese standard SUS304. The 300 series has the best comprehensive performance and the widest range of use, and the largest proportion in stainless steel. 304 stainless steel cold rolled coil is the representative steel grade in the 300 series. According to the calculation of 5 tons/hand and the price of 15,000 yuan/ton, the contract value of 304 stainless steel cold rolled coil is about 75,000 yuan per hand.
According to the relevant person in the previous issue, at the finished end, the price of stainless steel was up to 27,000 yuan/ton in the past ten years, and the lowest was only 12,000 yuan/ton. The average annual volatility of the 30-day moving window was about 10%. At the raw material end, the average annual volatility of high-nickel iron and high-carbon ferrochrome with a moving window of 30 days is about 11% and 10%. The correlation between nickel price and stainless steel price (the window period is one year) is fluctuating violently and the overall trend is declining. The market expects to build a complete product chain consisting of stainless steel futures, nickel futures and ferrochrome futures in the previous period, creating effective sets for upstream and downstream enterprises. Guaranteed toolbox.
The person said that the stainless steel industry has a high degree of marketization, diverse market players, frequent price fluctuations, and strong demand for corporate hedging. The introduction of the world's first stainless steel futures will help regulate the circulation order, promote the formation of an open and fair pricing mechanism, further enhance China's pricing influence in the international stainless steel market, and provide price risk management tools for related industrial chain enterprises.
Wang Jiajun, the current business manager of Zhejiang Yuantong, explained the changes that stainless steel futures may bring to the entity. He said that the current stainless steel industry faces three problems. First, the price of stainless steel is separated from the price of nickel. The price of nickel has been rising, but the price of stainless steel has risen far less than the increase in raw materials. Secondly, the price of stainless steel is separated from the cost, which makes it difficult for production enterprises. The continued growth of social stocks has kept inventory levels high, causing conflicts between steel mills and traders. Third, the increase in the fluctuation of stainless steel has made it more difficult for trade, processing, and downstream companies to cope.
Wang Jiajun believes that the listing of stainless steel futures, for stainless steel manufacturers, the preservation of raw materials from nickel to stainless steel can maintain stable production. For stainless steel traders, the use of futures prevention and control risks can capture reasonable profits.
At present, the pricing system of stainless steel market at home and abroad is more complicated. Foreign stainless steel producers use the alloy surcharge in pricing, namely: stainless steel price = base price + alloy surcharge. Domestic stainless steel pricing methods are more diverse, and manufacturers are priced according to inventory, raw material prices, and expected judgments using a single negotiation, opening settlement, and daily price adjustment. Wang Jiajun believes that the listing of stainless steel futures will change the traditional pricing model of stainless steel, with the price of low price plus rising premium as the transaction price.
Wang Jianfu, assistant general manager of the Steel House website, said that after more than a decade of rapid development, China's per capita consumption of stainless steel reached 15.8 kg in 2018 (only 1.8 kg in 2001), far higher than the world average. However, compared with advanced industrialized countries, there is still a big gap. China's current per capita consumption of stainless steel is only about 1/2 of that of Italy and South Korea; and the output of high-end stainless steel such as corrosion resistant materials and high-temperature materials is only 200,000 tons/year, accounting for It is only 1%, far lower than the United States, Germany, France and Japan.
“China's consumption upgrade is a high probability event, and there is still room for growth in the consumption of medium and high-end stainless steel products represented by the 300 series,” said the relevant person in the previous issue.
Market participants believe that although Wuxi and Foshan are the world's largest stainless steel spot market and distribution centers, it is expected to become the world's largest stainless steel futures trading center and price center in the future. The previous issue also indicated that the listing of stainless steel futures will fully draw on the mature experience of rebar and hot rolled coil futures, and will further improve the steel futures serial varieties. In the next step, under the unified deployment of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the previous phase will continue to implement various preparations for technology, delivery, quality inspection, etc. in accordance with the requirements of “high standards and steady start”, and strengthen market training and investor education. Effectively fulfill the duties of market supervision and risk prevention to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of stainless steel futures.